Following a discussion around book value after writing this post, another way to look at the current price would be that if you consider book value to be irrelevant to intrinsic value, the current price appears to reflect something like a 2.5% - 5% annual drop in earnings from around €12, or something like €11/share in earnings or free cash flow with zero growth.
I think that could be reasonable for earnings, but it is a significant increase in free cash flow, based on the current position. It would require aggressive tightening in working capital or heavy reduction in CapEx.
Following a discussion around book value after writing this post, another way to look at the current price would be that if you consider book value to be irrelevant to intrinsic value, the current price appears to reflect something like a 2.5% - 5% annual drop in earnings from around €12, or something like €11/share in earnings or free cash flow with zero growth.
I think that could be reasonable for earnings, but it is a significant increase in free cash flow, based on the current position. It would require aggressive tightening in working capital or heavy reduction in CapEx.